A Narrow Escape for France's Prime Minister: The Battle for Political Stability
In a tense political showdown, French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu narrowly dodged a bullet, surviving two no-confidence votes that threatened to plunge France into deeper chaos.
But here's where it gets controversial... Lecornu's survival sets the stage for an even greater challenge: navigating a 2026 budget through a bitterly divided National Assembly, the powerful lower house of France's Parliament.
The outcome of these votes not only spares President Emmanuel Macron from the risky move of dissolving the National Assembly and calling snap elections but also buys Lecornu some time to tackle the daunting task of budget approval.
One Vote, Two Motions: A Close Call for Lecornu
Lecornu, a trusted ally of Macron, faced a dual challenge from his fiercest opponents: the hard-left France Unbowed party and Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally, along with their allies in Parliament.
The first motion, proposed by France Unbowed, fell short by a mere 18 votes, with 271 lawmakers supporting it. Le Pen's second motion, though backed only by her party and a few others, garnered 144 votes, still well short of a majority.
And this is the part most people miss... The National Assembly President, Yaël Braun-Pivet, a Macron loyalist, expressed cautious optimism about building consensus for the budget, despite the deep divisions within Parliament.
Opposition's Strategic Pause
While Lecornu has survived this round, he's not entirely out of the woods yet. To secure the necessary votes, he hinted at the possibility of reversing one of Macron's most unpopular reforms: gradually raising France's retirement age from 62 to 64.
This potential concession helped convince lawmakers from the opposition Socialist Party to hold back their support for the no-confidence motions, at least for now. With 69 lawmakers, the Socialists could have easily tipped the scales against Lecornu, but only seven broke ranks to vote for the France Unbowed motion.
Similarly, the conservative Republicans, with 50 lawmakers, also withheld their support for Lecornu's removal, despite a passionate appeal from Éric Ciotti, a former Republicans leader now allied with Le Pen's far-right bloc.
In the closest-run first motion, just one Republicans lawmaker voted for Lecornu's removal. However, for Le Pen's second motion, with lower stakes, three Republicans broke ranks, highlighting the fragile nature of Lecornu's support among conservatives.
A Fragile Balance: Lecornu's Concessions
Lecornu's position remains precarious, and any future no-confidence votes could topple him if opposition parties feel their demands aren't met in the upcoming budget negotiations.
In a bid to ease tensions, Lecornu has promised not to use a special constitutional power to force the budget through Parliament without lawmakers' approval, a tool previously employed by Macron's government to impose the controversial 2023 pension reform.
Building consensus for budget measures, including tax hikes and spending cuts, to tackle France's ballooning state deficit and debt, will be an uphill battle. The National Assembly's deep divisions, exacerbated by Macron's decision to dissolve it in June 2024, have led to a political deadlock that shows no signs of abating.
Furthermore, the looming presidential race in 2027, marking the end of Macron's second and final term, adds another layer of complexity to consensus-building, as political parties jockey for position and seek to appeal to voters.
In a plea to lawmakers before the votes, Lecornu urged them to set aside political maneuvering and focus on the nation's budget and social security, stating, "History will judge these political tactics harshly... The presidential election will come, but for now, let's not hold the nation's finances hostage."
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Reported by Leicester from Le Pecq, France, with contributions from AP journalists Alex Turnbull and Nicolas Garriga in Paris.
